Joseph Isangura
Tanzania’s economy is projected to maintain its upward trajectory, with the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) forecasting growth of 6.9 percent in the final quarter of 2025 and 6 percent for the full year.
The outlook remains optimistic for 2026, when growth is expected to reach 6.4 percent, supported by strong public investment and expanding private sector activity.
According to the Monetary Policy Statement released this week, strategic infrastructure projects — including railways, roads, and airports — will continue to anchor economic performance. The government’s sustained investment in these areas is expected to enhance connectivity, lower transport costs, and attract further domestic and foreign investment.
Beyond infrastructure, the report highlights the tourism industry and manufacturing as key growth engines. The ongoing construction of stadiums and sports facilities ahead of the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) tournament is also expected to stimulate local employment and boost the hospitality sector.
“Rising global gold prices are expected to strengthen Tanzania’s export earnings and foreign reserves, while declining oil prices will ease import costs and curb inflation,” the BoT noted. “These trends create a supportive external environment, allowing room for flexible monetary policy to sustain economic growth while preserving stability.”
The central bank’s analysis shows that credit to the private sector is set to grow by approximately 17 percent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2025. This increase is driven by an accommodative policy stance introduced in mid-2025 and a surge in loan demand, particularly from trade and construction firms. Commercial banks have already received applications worth 1.1 trillion shillings, which are currently being reviewed for disbursement.
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Exports are projected to remain strong through the end of 2025, with total earnings expected to reach US$2.97 billion, up from US$2.9 billion recorded in the same period last year. Gold, cashew nuts, and tobacco are expected to remain key export commodities, while tourism and transport services continue to contribute significantly to foreign exchange inflows.
Economists note that these figures reflect both resilience and opportunity. Tanzania’s ability to sustain growth despite global challenges signals a recovering economy built on improved fiscal management, robust exports, and increased investment. However, experts caution that sustaining momentum will require continued reforms to enhance the business climate and address structural bottlenecks such as power reliability, logistics efficiency, and access to affordable financing.
As the nation positions itself for another year of expansion, policymakers are urged to ensure that macroeconomic stability translates into tangible benefits for citizens — through more jobs, stronger social services, and inclusive growth.
Tanzania’s story, as captured in the BoT report, is one of cautious optimism. The numbers point to progress, but the true measure of success will depend on how effectively the country turns growth into broad-based prosperity.
