Diplomacy in Ukraine War Focuses on Weapons, not Peace

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for a new peace summit in November, welcoming Russia’s participation.

However, Western diplomats and officials are debating whether the Ukrainian and Russian militaries are too exhausted to continue fighting or if negotiations could be on the horizon. Although some discussions hint at future peace talks, the immediate focus is on shaping the battlefield in Ukraine’s favor.

Despite Zelenskyy’s push for dialogue, U.S. and European officials privately admit that Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no willingness for genuine peace negotiations. Ukraine’s recent military successes, including occupying parts of Kursk and neutralizing Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet, have shifted the balance. Ukrainian forces have also targeted Russian oil facilities, striking vital economic infrastructure.

This military progress has sparked diplomatic conversations, with discussions about allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory using long-range missiles. Britain and France support the idea, while U.S. President Joe Biden has hesitated to allow such attacks with American weapons. However, Biden’s administration has continued to adjust its support based on the evolving battlefield.

The outcome of Ukraine’s continued military pressure, including its surprise moves in Kursk, could impact future peace talks and ultimately determine if Russia will come to the negotiating table.

Zelenskyy has been more vocal recently on the possibility of an eventual settlement, but only on terms that he and most Ukrainian citizens can accept. Ukraine regards Putin’s stated conditions as a demand for surrender.

The Ukrainian president has said he will present Biden, Harris and Trump this month with a “victory plan” that would “influence Russia’s decision to end this war.”

The strategy would involve putting psychological, political, diplomatic and — most immediately — military pressure on Moscow. Zelenskyy also plans to speak at an international peace summit in November, the second one this year.
This is a war of attrition, and ultimately, the key to peace talks is pounding home to Putin that Ukraine and its allies are committed to and capable of waging a long-term military campaign, said Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee of Ukraine’s parliament.

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