Joseph Isangura
Tanzania is preparing for the October–December 2025 Vuli rainfall season, which affects regions that experience two rainy seasons annually. These areas include the northeastern highlands, northern coast, Lake Victoria Basin, and northern Kigoma.
The Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) forecasts normal to below normal rainfall for most areas, with prolonged dry spells and uneven distribution along the northern coast and northeastern highlands. Meanwhile, regions of Kagera, Geita, and northern Kigoma are expected to experience normal to above normal rainfall, offering potential benefits for agriculture and water availability.
Rains are anticipated to start in early October in Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Mara, and northern Kigoma, spreading to Simiyu and Shinyanga by late October. The northeastern highlands and northern coast are expected to receive rainfall in early November, continuing through January 2026. Enhanced rainfall is likely in December, with temperatures remaining warmer than average across most bimodal regions.
Agricultural impacts are significant. Moisture deficits may affect crop growth and yields of maize, beans, cassava, bananas, and rice. Farmers are advised to prepare fields early, use water conservation measures, and monitor crops closely. Areas expecting above-normal rainfall may face flooding, waterlogging, and nutrient leaching, which can worsen pest and disease outbreaks.
Livestock and fisheries are also affected. Low rainfall may reduce pasture and water availability, increasing the risk of conflicts over grazing land. Conversely, areas with higher rainfall could benefit from improved pasture and water resources, though livestock diseases and insect-borne illnesses may rise. Pastoralists and fishers are encouraged to follow seasonal forecasts and plan water and feed conservation.
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Other sectors face challenges. Tourism and wildlife authorities must monitor water and pasture in parks to prevent human-wildlife conflicts. Transport infrastructure may experience disruptions in wet areas, while water and energy systems require careful management to prevent shortages and flooding. Public health authorities should take precautions against water-borne and vector-borne diseases.
The Vuli forecast aligns with regional climate conditions, including neutral to slightly cooler Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and variable conditions in the Indian Ocean, which influence moisture flows to East Africa. Communities are urged to use climate information to strengthen agricultural resilience and implement sustainable water management strategies. Regular updates from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority will guide sector-specific planning and disaster preparedness.
