editor and Media Wire Express Correspondent
As winter takes hold, the ongoing conflict along the northern border raises concerns, even among Arab nations, regarding how shifting weather conditions might affect military operations.
In Lebanon, the arrival of winter was particularly evident earlier this week. On Sunday evening, videos and images surfaced showing severe flooding in the streets of Beirut, including the tunnel that connects to Rafic Hariri International Airport, which is located near Dahieh, a stronghold of Hezbollah.
Heavy rains led to flooding that trapped individuals in their vehicles. Lebanese civil defense teams responded by rescuing those stranded, particularly in the areas of Al-Hadath and A-Shweifat in Dahieh. While winter floods are a common occurrence on the streets of Lebanon, this year is marked by heightened conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Unlike in previous years, significant strikes have occurred deep within Lebanon, following last winter’s focus primarily on border villages and towns.
The Lebanese Al-Mayadeen network, affiliated with Hezbollah, reported early Wednesday morning that Israeli Air Force planes continued to attack Dahieh, conducting about nine strikes on Hezbollah’s stronghold by morning. These strikes followed a field tour and situational assessment in southern Lebanon by IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and the Northern Command commander.
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An article in the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, published in London in Arabic, examined the anticipated effects of the rainy season on the ongoing conflict. It noted that while winter is expected to delay the war, it will not halt it entirely. The primary impact is anticipated on ground combat, though even this effect is limited, primarily affecting the movement of troops and vehicles. Experts suggest that military operations relying on air support will be even less impacted, as winter conditions in the region are not considered severe compared to other parts of the world.
In an interview with the Saudi newspaper, former senior Lebanese army officer Abd al-Rahman Shahatili stated that the weather has “no significant impact on the battle, as means have already been developed to fight under all conditions.” He explained that while rain and fog during winter complicate ground combat, they also provide advantages to both sides by obscuring visibility and aiding Hezbollah fighters in their attacks and defenses through camouflage.
Shahatili noted that Israel, equipped with more advanced technology, holds an advantage in winter conditions, whereas Hezbollah fighters face challenges navigating muddy and unpaved roads, complicating their operations. The article also highlighted that winter impacts the morale of combatants and the living conditions of those displaced by the war, which may increase pressure for negotiations and a political resolution to end the conflict. Another former senior Lebanese army officer, Hassan Jouni, remarked that if there is a decision to continue the war, winter will not serve as a deterrent.
