HIV Infections Could Increase Sixfold-Winnie Byanyima

The head of the U.N. AIDS agency Winnie Byanyima, has warned that the number of new HIV infections could increase by more than six times by 2029 if American support for the largest AIDS program is discontinued.

She cautioned that this could lead to millions of deaths and the emergence of more resistant strains of the disease.

The Executive Director in an interview ,reported that HIV infections h U.N. AIDSave been on the decline in recent years, with only 1.3 million new cases recorded in 2023, marking a 60% decrease since the virus peaked in 1995.

However, following President Donald Trump’s announcement to freeze all foreign assistance for 90 days, Byanyima warned that officials project there could be 8.7 million new HIV infections by 2029. This would represent a tenfold increase in AIDS-related deaths, rising to 6.3 million, along with an additional 3.4 million children becoming orphans.

“We will see a surge in this disease,” Byanyima said, speaking from Uganda. “This will cost lives if the American government doesn’t change its mind and maintain its leadership,” she said, adding that it was not her place to criticize any government’s policy.

Byanyima urged the Trump administration to avoid abruptly cutting off funding, which she claimed has caused “panic, fear, and confusion” in many African nations most affected by AIDS. In one Kenyan county, she reported that 550 HIV workers were laid off immediately, while thousands more in Ethiopia lost their jobs, hindering health officials’ ability to monitor the epidemic.

She emphasized that the loss of U.S. funding for HIV programs in certain countries could be catastrophic, as external funding—primarily from the U.S.—constitutes about 90% of their budgets. Nearly $400 million is allocated to countries such as Uganda, Mozambique, and Tanzania.

“We can collaborate with the Americans on how to reduce their contribution if they wish to decrease it,” she stated. Byanyima characterized the U.S. withdrawal from global HIV initiatives as the second greatest crisis the field has ever encountered, following the prolonged delay in providing lifesaving antiretrovirals to poorer countries that have long been available in wealthier nations.

She also pointed out that the loss of American support comes at a crucial moment with the introduction of what she referred to as a “magical prevention tool” called lenacapavir—a twice-yearly injection that has demonstrated complete protection against HIV in women and is nearly as effective for men.

Byanyima noted that widespread adoption of this shot, alongside other interventions to combat HIV, could potentially eliminate the disease as a public health issue within the next five years.

Additionally, she highlighted that lenacapavir, marketed as Sunlenca, was developed by the American company Gilead. She remarked that international aid has enabled an American company to innovate and create a product that generates significant profits while simultaneously preventing new infections worldwide. The freeze on U.S. funding, she argued, does not make economic sense.

“We appeal to the U.S. government to reconsider this decision and recognize that it is mutually beneficial,” she said, adding that foreign assistance represents less than 1% of the overall U.S. budget.