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China has accelerated its coal power generation in the first half of 2025, commissioning 21 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity—the highest first-half total since 2016.
This rise comes despite the country’s rapid growth in renewable energy, signaling persistent reliance on coal that could complicate its climate commitments.
According to research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the Global Energy Monitor, China approved 25 GW of new coal projects in the first half of 2025. When including previously revived projects, the total new and restarted coal capacity reached 75 GW—the highest first-half level in more than a decade. Analysts say this trend poses a challenge to China’s goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030, a central part of the nation’s energy policy.
Despite a 3% decline in coal use and a similar drop in emissions from the power sector, overall carbon dioxide emissions fell by only 1% compared to the same period in 2024. This modest reduction reflects a growing contribution from renewable sources, particularly solar power. Yet coal remains a dominant part of China’s energy mix, and the report notes that only 1 GW of coal-fired capacity was retired during the first six months of 2025—far below the target of 30 GW planned for the year.
The recent surge builds on a permitting spree in 2022–2023, when China approved over 100 GW of new coal capacity annually. Unless policies are adjusted, this pipeline of projects is expected to continue driving high commissioning levels through 2026–2027.
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Beyond energy statistics, experts warn that China’s coal expansion carries significant global implications. Increased emissions from the world’s largest energy consumer can hinder international climate goals, complicate efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C, and impact global energy markets. Furthermore, rising coal reliance may influence international relations, as other countries adjust climate commitments in response to China’s energy trajectory.
Policy analysts emphasize that while renewables are growing, stronger measures are needed to curb coal power expansion. Accelerating wind, solar, and hydro capacity, implementing stricter coal permitting policies, and retiring older coal plants are seen as crucial steps for China to align with both its domestic and global climate objectives.
The situation highlights a broader dilemma: balancing energy security and economic growth with environmental responsibility. As China continues to expand both coal and renewable generation, the world watches closely to see whether it can meet its ambitious climate targets while maintaining a reliable energy supply.
