editorTanzania’s agriculture sector is experiencing a significant revival. In the 2023/24 season alone, the country produced a record 12 million tonnes of maize and 3.2 million tonnes of rice, helping it surpass 128% food self-sufficiency—a remarkable achievement in a region often plagued by food insecurity.
This growth reflects the sector’s central role in the economy. Agriculture employs roughly 65% of Tanzanians and contributes 26.5% to GDP. But despite these encouraging numbers, a deeper problem threatens the long-term sustainability of these gains: the mismanagement of the fertiliser subsidy programme.
One of the most critical challenges is low crop yields. Tanzanian maize farmers harvest an average of 1.9 tonnes per hectare—a stark contrast to Egypt’s 9 t/ha and Zambia’s 4.2 t/ha. The reason? Fertiliser use remains significantly below global standards.
Currently, Tanzanian farmers apply just 24 kg of fertiliser per hectare, which is less than half of the CAADP target of 50 kg/ha, and far below the global average of 133 kg/ha.
To tackle this gap, the government introduced a nationwide subsidy initiative in August 2022. The programme’s design is relatively straightforward: the government works with 31 authorised suppliers, who provide fertiliser to over 4,200 registered agents. These agents then sell the fertiliser to farmers at reduced rates, with the government reimbursing the difference to suppliers.
Although the programme’s goal is to make fertiliser more affordable and accessible, it faces serious structural flaws. One of the biggest problems is Tanzania’s heavy dependence on imports. Even though local fertiliser production has increased fivefold since 2021, it still meets less than 15% of the national demand, leaving the country vulnerable to global price fluctuations and logistical delays.
By June 2024, suppliers had delivered over 901,000 tonnes of fertiliser, but they are still owed more than TSh204 billion. This is despite a total government budget of TSh287 billion earmarked for the programme since its launch. Many suppliers and agents are now operating on borrowed funds just to keep distribution running—a precarious position that could collapse at any moment.
Delayed payments and poor logistics are strangling the very system meant to support farmers. Many rural agro-dealers can’t afford to restock, and some face the risk of shutting down. If this happens, thousands of farmers—especially in remote areas—will lose access to essential inputs just when they need them most.
Worryingly, the lack of digital tracking in the system leaves it open to fraud. A recent audit found that without real-time tracking, “ghost deliveries” and falsified sales could go undetected, costing taxpayers and further weakening trust in public programmes.
Still, it’s not all bleak. According to the Tanzania Fertiliser Regulatory Authority (TFRA), the subsidy has improved fertiliser availability, reduced retail prices, and increased access in many rural areas. The private sector also reports that tighter regulation has improved product quality and reduced cross-border smuggling.
But even as these positives emerge, many experts argue that the current model is unsustainable.s
Policy analysts are urging the government to adopt smart subsidies—a model that uses technology, soil health data, and targeted vouchers instead of blanket price cuts. They also stress the need to invest in local fertiliser manufacturing, especially since Tanzania is rich in natural gas—an essential raw material in fertiliser production.
Additionally, redirecting a portion of the subsidy funds to rural roads, irrigation systems, and agricultural research would likely produce stronger, more lasting improvements in productivity.
Tanzania’s agriculture has proven it can rise—with the right support. But unless the fertiliser subsidy programme is reformed and properly managed, it could go from being a solution to a setback.
The country stands at a critical juncture. The question is no longer whether subsidies help—it’s whether they can be made smarter, more accountable, and more sustainable.
